- The coronavirus and pending recessions are responsible for shrinking traditional and digital advertising spends globally.
- Global digital ad spending will fall from 2019’s 6.3% to 2.4%, despite continued growth.
- Google’s anticipated ad revenues will decline by 3.3%, though Facebook and Amazon will grow, albeit more slowly.
- Display ad investments will increase by 5.3% to $179.39 billion, while search declines.
eMarketer’s recent Q2 reports forecast a 2.4% rise in digital advertising spending globally and a 1.7% increase in US digital ads after years of double digit growth. The global picture also anticipates a 4.9% fall in overall ad spending, down from 6.3% growth in 2019.
For the first time, eMarketer tracked a loss for Google ad revenues at 3.3%, partly from huge falls in travel-related search. Facebook, meanwhile, is expected to grow by 5.9%, still down from 26.6% growth in 2019. The reports concluded on an optimistic note that robust growth will resume in 2021.
Prior to the pandemic, the media and advertising intelligence firm forecast global growth at 7%. The revised revenue forecast now stands at $614.73 billion, down $76.99 billion from previous analysis. A predicted double-digit fall will hit traditional media channels – TV, radio and print ads – this year.
eMarketer revised its previous 17% growth forecast in the U.S. and $22 billion in additional spending to $2.2bn.
Assessing targeted spending, the firm concluded that global search ads will decline by 0.2% this year to $135.25 billion, whereas display ad investments will increase by 5.3% to $179.39 billion. Search will decline due to a fall in travel advertising, while video content’s popularity will stimulate display. “Idiosyncratic outcomes associated with the coronavirus’ social impact” were also cited.
Though eMarketer expects Facebook and Amazon’s ad revenues to grow, Google’s decline alters their makeup as a market triopoly. Their combined market share is at “the same size in 2020 as 2019… with a somewhat different internal breakdown.”